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Prediction for CME (2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-29T04:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28848/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M6.8 class flare from AR 13559, best observed in SDO AIA 131. This eruption is also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with subsequent field line movement, an EUV wave, and post eruptive arcades following the flare visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Possible arrival/glancing blow signature of arrival of this CME at L1: enhancement in magnetic field components with an increase in B_total from 3.6 nT to over 7 nT, reaching a maximum near 8 nT. Rotation of all three magnetic field components. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 390 km/s to 440 km/s and increases in temperature and density (to ~5nT) were also observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-01T05:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-31T03:34Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 38.3333%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.42857 - 5.42857
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 13.63 hour(s)
Difference: 25.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-01-31T15:40Z

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